(Top)

List of p(doom) values

p(doom) is the probability of very bad outcomes (e.g. human extinction) as a result of AI. This most often refers to the likelihood of AI taking over from humanity, but different scenarios can also constitute "doom". For example, a large portion of the population dying due to a novel biological weapon created by AI, social collapse due to a large-scale cyber attack, or AI causing a nuclear war. Note that not everyone is using the same definition when talking about their p(doom) values. Most notably the time horizon is often not specified, which makes comparing a bit difficult.

  • <0.01%

    Yann LeCun
    one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta

    (less likely than an asteroid)
  • 10%

    Vitalik Buterin
    Ethereum founder

  • 10%

    Geoff Hinton
    one of three godfathers of AI

    (wipe out humanity in the next 20 years)
  • 9-19.4%

    Machine learning researchers

    (From 2023, depending on the question design, median values: 5-10%)
  • 15%

    Lina Khan
    head of FTC

  • 10-20%

    Paul Christiano

    (Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)
  • 10-20%

    Elon Musk
    CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X

  • 10-25%

    Dario Amodei
    CEO of Anthropic

  • 20%

    Yoshua Bengio
    one of three godfathers of AI

  • 5-50%

    Emmett Shear
    Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI

  • 30%

    AI Safety Researchers

    (Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)
  • 33%

    Scott Alexander
    Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten

  • 35%

    Eli Lifland

  • 40%

    AI engineer

    (Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)
  • 40%

    Joep Meindertsma
    Founder of PauseAI

    (The remaining 60% consists largely of "we can pause".)
  • 50%

    Holden Karnofsky
    Executive Director of Open Philanthropy

  • 10-90%

    Jan Leike
    alignment lead at OpenAI

  • 60%

    Zvi Mowshowitz
    AI researcher

  • 70%

    Daniel Kokotajlo
    Forecaster & former OpenAI researcher

  • >80%

    Dan Hendrycks
    Head of Center for AI Safety

  • >99%

    Eliezer Yudkowsky
    Founder of MIRI

  • 99.999999%

    Roman Yampolskiy
    AI safety scientist

Do something about it

However high your p(doom) is, you probably agree that we should not allow AI companies to gamble with our future. Join PauseAI to prevent them from doing so.